Furu to Guru

Welcome back, everyone! It's been almost a year since my last post and even that post wasn't about the markets. It's time to change that going forward. So what better way to come back than to talk cryptocurrencies. In this case, Bitcoin. If you look at the weekly chart, Bitcoin has gone bananas since its March 2020 low of around 3,800. That is nearly a 1,000% return in under a year! Phew... But is the rally done? Are there no buyers left? Are the people that bought recently going to be stuck holding the bag if this huge rally collapses? Great questions. Let's dig deeper. The way I dig deeper is to simply look at lower timeframe charts and perform technical analysis. Now the daily chart is clearly showing a triangle pattern, which is a trading range or consolidation of price action. What does that mean? It means supply and demand are fairly balanced around the 35,500 level. The trendlines that form a triangle are the key support and resistance lines to watch going forwar...

Disclaimer There is a lot of talk in the Twittersphere about ETH (Ethereum) and BTC (Bitcoin) being in a bubble: POLL: Is bitcoin in a bubble or not? — CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) September 6, 2017 In late May when Bitcoin was trading around $2,200 51% said it was a bubble and another 25% said it was overvalued. Today it's at $4,600. pic.twitter.com/LY0CYRkhE4 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 30, 2017

I've always been a terrible procrastinator. Whether it was doing homework, drafting a term paper, or studying for a test in high school or college, I always waited until I was super close to the deadline to get started. I've always felt that this behavior was lazy, unsightly, or if I forgot, my parents or friends would just tell me that I'm a lazy ass. I know I'm not alone in feeling this way about laziness. Many people get the same sense of dread of having to start doing something they don't want to do. There are a million other things I could be doing with my time rather than a boring homework assignment. I know I'll have to do the assignment eventually, but I'm in no rush to do something that seems trivial or boring.

The US market is on fire! - SPY is up 10% YTD and QQQ is up 19% YTD! - President Trump can't stop talking about the monster market gains and tweeted more about it in the last few weeks than he has since he took office: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump - CAPE Shiller PE ratio is in record territory not seen since the Dotcom Bubble: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ - Over 70% S&P500 companies topped Wall Street estimates regarding revenues AND earnings: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/us-stocks-earnings-season.html - The Atlanta Fed said the US economy expanded at a totally unexpected and gigantic pace of 4% in Q2 2017: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed-idUSKCN18C20T But the US market is way overbought/extended! - SPY hasn't touched the weekly moving average in months! - SPY has gone straight up since the Feb 2016 low, returning a whopping 27%! - VIX is at a freaking 23 year low: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks...

If you've ever spent time reading professional development books or blogs or watching videos about the topic, you may notice a consistent trend when it comes to how authors/mentors frame the things that supposedly hold you back from your goals. For example, if the goal is to improve your performance at playing piano, the mentor (and research to be honest) suggest you embrace failure and the fear of sucking. Just give a big hug to that fear monster and truck on through. You should approach playing the piano without a fear of sucking, looking bad in front of others, and just get the hours of practice in. Suck it up, man. Over time, you'll build your piano skills to a level where you feel much less fear about playing piano and you'll be able to approach practicing with enjoyment and opportunity versus fearful and a desire to avoid being sucky. While I support the notion and evidence that suggest practicing is essential to improving any performance skill, I think it overlo...

Everyone seems to be shitting on the US Dollar $UUP lately. Looking at the chart it makes sense, it's been steadily losing value since Jan 2017. Here's the problem, it's approaching massive support. So the question is, do you short here or go long?