September 8, 2017

Is the Ethereum (ETH)/Bitcoin (BTC) Cryptocurrency Bubble Bursting?


There is a lot of talk in the Twittersphere about ETH (Ethereum) and BTC (Bitcoin) being in a bubble:

This isn't much of a surprise, many people were saying ETH and BTC were in a bubble 6 months ago. Interestingly, this same phenomenon happened just prior to the 2008 financial collapse and housing bubble burst. Google searches for "housing bubble" topped out two years before the bubble actually burst.

August 5, 2017

Let's Talk About Laziness

I've always been a terrible procrastinator. Whether it was doing homework, drafting a term paper, or studying for a test in high school or college, I always waited until I was super close to the deadline to get started. I've always felt that this behavior was lazy, unsightly, or if I forgot, my parents or friends would just tell me that I'm a lazy ass.

I know I'm not alone in feeling this way about laziness. Many people get the same sense of dread of having to start doing something they don't want to do. There are a million other things I could be doing with my time rather than a boring homework assignment. I know I'll have to do the assignment eventually, but I'm in no rush to do something that seems trivial or boring.

August 3, 2017

Let's Talk US Markets (QQQ and SPY)

The US market is on fire!

- SPY is up 10% YTD and QQQ is up 19% YTD!
- President Trump can't stop talking about the monster market gains and tweeted more about it in the last few weeks than he has since he took office:
- CAPE Shiller PE ratio is in record territory not seen since the Dotcom Bubble:
- Over 70% S&P500 companies topped Wall Street estimates regarding revenues AND earnings:
- The Atlanta Fed said the US economy expanded at a totally unexpected and gigantic pace of 4% in Q2 2017:

But the US market is way overbought/extended!

- SPY hasn't touched the weekly moving average in months!
- SPY has gone straight up since the Feb 2016 low, returning a whopping 27%!
- VIX is at a freaking 23 year low:

What on Earth do you do with this insane situation? Bulls have a massive case. Bears have a massive case. Who is likely to win??

Let's talk about it in more detail in my next post.


July 30, 2017

Most Things Happen for a Reason

If you've ever spent time reading professional development books or blogs or watching videos about the topic, you may notice a consistent trend when it comes to how authors/mentors frame the things that supposedly hold you back from your goals. For example, if the goal is to improve your performance at playing piano, the mentor (and research to be honest) suggest you embrace failure and the fear of sucking. Just give a big hug to that fear monster and truck on through.

You should approach playing the piano without a fear of sucking, looking bad in front of others, and just get the hours of practice in. Suck it up, man. Over time, you'll build your piano skills to a level where you feel much less fear about playing piano and you'll be able to approach practicing with enjoyment and opportunity versus fearful and a desire to avoid being sucky.

While I support the notion and evidence that suggest practicing is essential to improving any performance skill, I think it overlooks an incredibly important aspect of who we are as human beings and life in general in this universe. Evolution and natural selection, which show that most things we do in life we do for a reason, not because we're flawed or there is something wrong with us, but because the things increased our chances of survival.

Everything we do is a collection of actions that form habits that were selected for over hundreds of thousands of years. Therefore, it is irresponsible and often unsuccessful over the long term to approach a human-centered problem set by simply focusing on certain "bad" behaviors that need eradicated without first considering the underlying reason behind why we do what do.

July 27, 2017

US Dollar $UUP

Everyone seems to be shitting on the US Dollar $UUP lately. Looking at the chart it makes sense, it's been steadily losing value since Jan 2017. Here's the problem, it's approaching massive support. So the question is, do you short here or go long?

Back to Work Ladies & Gents


It's been far too long since I made a post, I apologize to the 3 people that usually read them. Anyway, it's back to business putting my thoughts on digital paper about the market and certain equities that peak my interest. A couple quick important points that I think need to be discussed:

Timing the market/day trading is not for everyone. Actually, 99% of people should avoid trying to time the market. Why? Consider some facts: Almost 60% of stocks decrease in value during a given year. So you have less than a 50/50 chance of even picking a stock that makes you money. In addition, several studies that analyzed over 100,000+ brokerage accounts showed even more bad news: 90% of the accounts either lost money or made just a little bit of money.